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The Next Step: Online Inventory Search

by Patrick Ruffini :: June 2nd, 2007 11:02 pm

People wonder what the next ginormous step in tech is going to be. My money is on inventory search of every store. What needs to happen for this to become reality? RFID. Interoperability between inventory systems.

Lots of stuff you’re never going to buy online (groceries; the Target run). But if you’re searching for some obscure item, you should be able to go on Google and locate the stores closest to you that have that item, in real time. (Think how much time this would save in trying to hopscotch from store to store to find that perfect gift.)

When you think of it, most of Web 2.0 is a presentation layer above the existing, a way to rate/save/share/remix existing products. ECommerce is an option over and above bricks and mortar. What is the Web doing to change things at the product layer?

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All Hail Quantcast

by Patrick Ruffini :: April 20th, 2007 9:20 pm

In the past few days, I’ve grown addicted to Quantcast.

As a market research tool, it blows the doors off Alexa. It includes demographic data on a site’s visitors, as well as other related sites a visitor is likely to go to and frequency of visits (from addicts to first-time visitors). While you sometimes see odd data and the charts jumping around more than they should, the related sites, demographics, and intensity data are pretty believable for most well trafficked sites. Here’s a sample site page, for Drudge.

The key differentiator between Quantcast (and Compete) vs. Alexa is that the former is panel-based, while the latter depends on your installing an annoying toolbar. Which means that while Alexa is usually accurate and less prone to daily swings, there is selection bias in who installs the toolbar. In my experience it’s likely to be techie types — a link from Digg or Slashdot is more likely to send your Alexa numbers hurtling into the stratosphere. That’s surprising as you’d expect more sophisticated users to be wary of spyware and browser bloat.

Quantcast approximates my vision for a social analytics tool that not only allows you to publicly rank yourself on the traffic spectrum but gives you information on demographics and what other sites your readers are viewing. Its “Quantification” tool, which I’ve installed on PatrickRuffini.com, gives you an accurate read on your unique monthly readers (which you can get from Google Analytics) but the real benefit is more accurate data on related sites and search terms.

One random thing I LOVE about the tool: We can finally track subdomain traffic. Alexa is virtually useless for tracking subdomains, which is particularly useful on massive sites like Blogspot.com where a subdomain equals a site. For those sites that use subdomains, it enables you to drill down on particular segments of that audience (for instance, people who went to a Contribute page for a political candidate).

Two random things I don’t love. You can’t embed their charts, yet. Also, like Compete.com, which offers a monthly, less granular read on unique visitors (a data point that’s completely opaque in Alexa), Quantcast vastly underestimates unique visitors by as much as 200 to 300%. I suspect this is because they’re not differentiating between U.S. and non-U.S. visits; you have to Quantify your site to get that breakdown plus an accurate number for daily and monthly uniques.

While we will always rely on Nielsen, comScore, and Hitwise data for the big guys, I am starting to think that tools like Quantcast are downright better overall because of their coverage of niche sites and the long tail. The problem with Nielsen is that their panels are small and traffic numbers can spike greatly from week to week even with no change in actual traffic. If you don’t have a monthly unique number well north of one million, the demographics and week-to-week data can be extremely jumpy. Over time, the numbers even out, but for 99.9% of sites, Nielsen is of little use. In a long tail universe, that’s unacceptable.

Soon, all basic traffic data on the Internet will be free and transparent. The premium will be in the analysis and SPSSable data sets (if I could see Siteographics for ALL sites, not just the top 4 in 3 categories, I would pay good money for that).

And with the recent release of Google’s Web History, I suspect Palo Alto may be getting into the game soon too.

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A Well-Done Video Banner

by Patrick Ruffini :: April 15th, 2007 5:39 pm

Browsing the new Portfolio.com, this ad, from IBM of all places, really caught my eye. Note the richness of content and the choice of long-form, documentary-style video. And it’s not even Pointroll (at least I don’t think).

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I Read It for the Articles

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 28th, 2007 11:42 pm

You should not judge the latest Wired magazine by its cover (though that probably can’t hurt)…

The Clive Thompson-Fred Vogelstein one-two punch on conversational marketing is absolutely game-changing. For anyone wishing to dig deeper on this, Robert Scoble and Shel Israel’s Naked Conversations is the fount of all knowledge on this subject.

The bottom line for marketers and communicators: More content = unalloyed good. And you can’t go halfway on the Web; either you decide to be open and transparent or you’re not (although there is something to be said for the Steve Jobs model).

We’ll probably still need press releases for low-information consumers who get their news filtered through television and the papers. But there is no reason you can’t unpack the message for people on the Web, letting people consume as much information as they want to consume about your brand. Soon you will no longer have consumers but evangelists.

An interesting note: Microsoft’s PR firm committed an oopsie by sending their detailed file on Fred Vogelstein… to Fred Vogelstein. (Yeah… unreal.) And surprisingly, Vogelstein did not set out to sandbag Redmond in his article, producing a mostly upbeat piece until he slipped that point in at the end of the piece. It shows the tension between the openness of blogging coexisting with the message control of PR firms keeping detailed files on reporters and their lines of questioning.

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The Passive Web

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 24th, 2007 10:58 pm

Rex Hammock makes the case why no one should freak out over Twitter.

I’ll happily admit that I’m on the other side of this particular social disconnect. I get the Internet. I get blogs (or at least I think I do). But I fully understand that these are mature / tapped out media. Updating my status every fifteen minutes and/or texting my buddies is something I just don’t do. (Heck, I even hate using Google Calendar.) This makes me very self-conscious about my own early adopter credentials, seeing as I’m not even 30 yet.

I don’t do any of these things because they seem like a lot of work — for very little payoff. I don’t know if very many of the young ‘uns feel the same way or not.

To get mainstream adoption (particularly among folks my age or older), all of these status updates / social bookmarking / lifestream tools could use a layer of passivity built in. Which means I don’t have to tag, upload to Flickr, upload to Facebook, Twitter in, etc. to use them; just analyze my clickstream and inbound mail to build patterns for me. One of the concepts that intrigued me at SXSW was the idea of passively multiplayer games — comparing my activity to that of others through an objective look at clickstream data.

Just as Rex notes, there will be business applications to Twitter beyond the initial silliness we’re seeing now. When that happens, the real power behind these tools won’t be in forcing users to update their status, but building systems that will do it for them. I’ve been using Attention Trust’s clickstream data to analyze my browsing habits for a while, telling me how many hours a week I’m online, or how much time I spend doing email or reading blogs. Facebook’s news feed is another great auto-discovery tool, altering me to new groups and interesting people on the network. Auto-tagging would be great for a CRM platform; the thought is that all inbound email could be tagged based on the prevalence of statistically anomalous terms. A tag cloud could tell you what your customers are saying right now before you even read their mail. The clear benefit: it’s objective where normal tagging is editorially biased.

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Education 2.0

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 24th, 2007 1:26 pm

This bit from Mark Zuckerberg’s interview in the WSJ is really getting me going:

In fact, the success of Facebook may well underscore a major shift in the way we gather information, a trend that Mr. Zuckerberg picked up early on. He describes a class he took at Harvard called Rome of Augustus: “For the final exam, we had to learn the historical significance of something like 500 pieces of art from that period. Having not really read that stuff, I was in a lot of trouble, spending my time building Facebook instead of studying.”

Right before the final, Mr. Zuckerberg went to the course Web site, downloaded all the images and made a new site with a page for each image, along with a box to add comments. Then he forwarded the site’s link to the class list. Within an hour or two, a bunch of his classmates visited the site and filled out all the information about the photos. Mr. Zuckerberg went back and “kind of absorbed it all,” eventually getting an A in the class. He believes that the grades on that final were much higher than they have ever been.

“By taking the understanding that all the individuals have and pooling that knowledge together, you get a better set of knowledge,” he explains, which perhaps is what Facebook is all about. “That’s kind of what we are doing here, but with ‘What’s going on in the world with these people that I care about?’”

Is this cheating? Or is it a mass technology-enabled study group? And does it matter?

My wife and I are expecting two girls in the next few weeks. And I can’t help but think that school is going to be a radically different experience for them than it was for me. Will Wikipedia be accepted as an authoritative source in term papers? (Is this already happening?) Why use textbooks, when the stuff that’s available online is probably 1) just as accurate, in the aggregate, and 2) much, much, much more comprehensive. Also: won’t the exclusivity of Harvard get diluted if lectures can be put online (as I believe MIT and Berkeley are already doing?).

Moreover, absorbing rote knowledge won’t be much of an individual challenge anymore. Looking at Zuckerberg’s example, students seem more than happy to put competition aside to enhance the knowledge of the group. Looking forward, I see an exercise where a class is asked to build an in-class wiki on an obscure subject. Students are judged on the overall quality of the article, and also their individual contributions (how many times did you contribute? were your contributions of high quality?). That’s just the tip of the iceberg.

The key difference is that arriving at a common kernel of knowledge will be much less the end goal, and much more of a jumping off point to the next level. After all, much of the stuff I used to have to go to the library for (particularly in middle school and high school) is now on Wikipedia. Why should teachers expend as much time and effort assigning and grading 30 virtually identical papers on the French Revolution, when a much more complete understanding can be arrived at via a wiki. If you wanted to challenge their individual knowledge, students could then be given (personalized? computer-generated?) assignments on more advanced or comparative subjects leveraging the class’s common knowledge base.

And the kids will get this stuff. They are the original “early adopters” because they aren’t burdened by crappy old technology.

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Poll: Is Twitter for Real?

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 19th, 2007 10:07 pm

Voice your opinion on Web 2.0’s most inscrutable technology trend. Is Twitter here to stay or is the flash mob dispersing?

Is Twitter…
for real?
at 14:59 and counting?
  
pollcode.com free polls

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Twitter’s Supernova

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 18th, 2007 11:27 pm

Was this just a SXSW phenomenon? Is it sustainable?

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Your 10 Most Important Readers

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 15th, 2007 1:16 am

Are the first 10.

Things aren’t quite that dire for this blog. But it’s probably no secret that traffic here isn’t through the roof. SXSW coverage aside, lately I’ve been spending most of my time on my political blog and Hugh Hewitt’s, not to mention the small matter of my day job. And it’s reflected in the number of people that come here on a regular basis.

And, incredibly, I’m cool with that. Because I’m discovering that your most important readers are the diehard early adopters.

Tech blogs are fundamentally different than political blogs. Sure, both need great content. But a tech blog won’t go stale if you’re not covering the controversy of the day; more often than not, the focus is on products and how-tos which have relevance beyond the day they were written. And though those trends evolve quickly, the analysis is valid until someone changes their product or it’s superseded by something better. That can take months.

So, my post on the Blackberry and Google Apps may be becoming something of a definitive record on the subject, if this Jason Calacanis post is to be believed.

Moreso than political blogs, search and RSS are the key drivers on tech blogs which gives them a longer shelf life. Already this blog has built a decent-sized RSS audience that will return when I do post something new. RSS makes a semi-dormant blog eminently discoverable. And if I’m troubleshooting a tech problem, more often than not my search will lead me to a blog post from someone else who had the same problem, with solutions outlined in the comments. Oftentimes, these posts are months to years old, but they’re still relevant. As such, whenever I have a problem and/or have found a solution, I see it as a public service to document it in a post that someone can Google it. Moreso than on a political site when you’re commenting on the issue of the day, I view this as an archival exercise. Maybe someone will come back months from now and find my SXSW posts useful.

And despite the pathetic traffic to this blog, a number of people I talked to in person were able to find my SXSW play-by-play just fine, without me pointing it to them. And if you can’t influence that immediate circle, who can you influence?

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SXSWi: Coverage Roundup

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 14th, 2007 6:16 pm

As promised, here is a rundown of the good folks in the room who blogged our panel yesterday.

Roving Sheila: “It was so nice to see a congenial bunch of wonks who were not trying to draw blood and were quite cordial. We need more of that these days.”

Fixin’ Supper has a great near-transcription.

Web Teacher also live blogged.

Wired says the Internet can’t make you President.

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